With Modi's Magic Waning, Will The BJP Survive Bihar?

The vice president’s election in many ways is a milestone in Indian politics, as a few weeks ago nobody would have imagined that the incumbent Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar would resign and very soon a new leader would take his place. But, as is said, politics is full of uncertainties, and Dhankhar, who was thought to be the most loyal supporter of Modi, had to leave office in the most humiliating circumstances, and as I am writing, nobody knows if he is under house arrest or is a free bird. It is a foregone conclusion that the BJP’s candidate, CP Radhakrishnan, will win, but what is of interest is the margin of that victory. But the bigger battle will be fought in Bihar, most probably in the month of November. That will be the real test of the Modi government, and that will unravel many mysteries which have engulfed the minds of the people.

The Modi government is facing its worst crisis since the 2024 parliamentary elections. That election, no doubt, has broken the myth that Modi is invincible and unchallengeable. Under his leadership, the BJP has not only been reduced to 240 seats, 32 seats less than the majority mark in the lower house of the parliament, but he also got the jolt of his life when his personal victory margin was drastically reduced and the party lost almost all the seats surrounding Varanasi, along with Ayodhya. And rumour mills have been buzzing that the RSS is not happy with Modi’s style of functioning and that he might be asked to resign when he reaches 75 years of age. Though massive and unexpected victories in Haryana and Maharashtra gave him a new rush of blood, before he could enjoy these assembly wins, Modi was confronted with the betrayal of his ‘best’ friend, Donald Trump, who turned out to be his nemesis, along with his bête noire, Rahul Gandhi.

Modi, who viewed personal friendship as a substitute for institutional diplomacy, got a severe jolt when Trump, disdainfully, in one attack after another, tried to cut him down to size, resulting in the breakdown of India’s virtual relationship with the USA, and the country was forced to gravitate towards China. But what has really hurt him is Rahul Gandhi’s accusation that he, along with the Election Commission (EC), manipulates voters’ lists to win elections. Rahul Gandhi, allegedly, not only gave the proof but also launched a public campaign by going on a 16-day yatra in Bihar. His slogan, ‘Vote Chor, Gaddi Chhor’, is proving to be brutal and catching the imagination of the local population.

I know of several surveys that are quite confident that the SIR is not an issue with voters in Bihar and is placed very low in their list of priorities. I disagree with them and am of the firm opinion that the ‘Vote Theft’ slogan is the most lethal attack that the Prime Minister is facing, not because he is seen to be manipulating the elections but because this campaign is creating a doubt in the minds of the people that he is not as clean as he projects himself to be. Trust is a leader’s biggest asset, and if doubt is generated about his credibility, honesty and integrity, then it can prove fatal in the long run. A leader’s thousand mistakes are forgotten and forgiven by the people if his integrity is beyond doubt, but once he loses that, then his decline is certain and the damage is permanent. ‘Vote Theft’ has the potential to damage Modi’s integrity irreparably.

For the PM, the Bihar election, in the context of the SIR, is akin to walking on thin ice. Either way, he will be a loser. If he loses, then it will be considered to be the people’s verdict vis-a-vis the EC’s forced electoral roll cleansing, and if he wins, then the victory will be attributed to election manipulation. Forced SIR is a blunder which occupies an exalted place of glory along with demonetisation and total lockdown during Covid. His critics will get an opportunity to attribute his defeat in the Bihar elections to the mess he has created since the days of the Pahalgam massacre. The PM, for some unknown reasons, does not believe in visiting a place where he gets the blame for the crisis. Like Manipur, he did not visit Pahalgam. He became completely invisible when Covid hit the country the second time, and the Supreme Court had to call him out with the observation that the “government should smell the coffee”. Similarly, when Trump attacked India, the PM did not retaliate despite the Opposition’s incessant criticism.

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The Bihar election will take place at a time when the PM is being attacked for not being able to appoint the BJP’s party president, and the corridors of power are echoing with the chorus that the RSS is out to clip Modi’s wings. No wonder when he spoke highly of the RSS from the ramparts of the Red Fort, it seemed he was willing to concede some ground to his mother organisation. Mohan Bhagwat did reciprocate by clearing the air that he did not ask anyone to retire after the age of 75. But the uncertainties regarding who will take the baton from JP Nadda continue. It is also in the realm of speculation whether the RSS will participate in the modern battle of Patliputra, the original land of democracy.

Except for past glories, Bihar is no longer the jewel in the crown. It is the poorest state in India with the least per capita income and no hope of any future economic resurgence, despite Nitish Kumar’s 20-year rule. The BJP has steadfastly supported him during this time, except for a few years when Nitish Kumar had moved to the RJD. Hence, 20 years of anti-incumbency along with a not-so-healthy Nitish Kumar can move the pendulum away from the Modi-Nitish combine, and if that happens, then, given the context, more than Kumar, it is Modi who will be blamed, and serious questions will be asked about his leadership mettle.

The writer is Co-Founder, SatyaHindi.com, and author of Hindu Rashtra. He tweets at @ashutosh83B