Pakistan's dilemma: Revive economy with US deal or risk Taliban wrath over Bagram

New Delhi, Sep 24 (IANS) Pakistan is set to walk the tight rope as its Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir are slated to hold a meeting with US President Donald Trump on Thursday.

The minerals deal between the two countries will be the focus, as the United States is very concerned about the developments in Balochistan.

President Trump would raise security issues with Pakistan and would seek to know what exactly the plan is to contain terror groups in the region.

While the Balochistan National Army (BLA) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) pose the biggest risks for the Pakistan Army in the region, the US would want security guarantees before it goes ahead with any project in Pakistan.

In the backdrop of an already volatile situation in the region and China breathing down Pakistan's neck regarding the China Economic Corridor Project (CEPC), Islamabad is faced with another problem.

The Afghan Taliban is preparing for another war if the United States attempts to retake the Bagram airbase in Afghanistan.

During a high-level meeting, the Taliban, which rules the country, is understood to have taken on Pakistan if the US continues to pressure it on the airbase.

Although during the meeting, the Taliban did not speak of confrontation with the United States, it, however, made it clear that it would take on Pakistan, as it is backing the US now.

President Trump, who has shown keen interest in the airbase, is expected to pressure Pakistan during the Thursday meeting on this issue.

Donald Trump's foreign policies always come at a cost, and if he wants Pakistan to have the deal, then he would expect help on the retaking of the airbase.

For Pakistan, it would be a catch-22 situation. The minerals deal is important as Pakistan has an economy that collapsed long ago.

For the same to revive, not only would it be the US deal, but also the competition of the CPEC 2.0 project that China has told it to raise funds for.

Trump has in recent days made repeated threats and hinted at the possibility of American forces reclaiming the strategic Bagram Air Base.

He said that bad things would follow if the Taliban did not comply.

Officials, however, point out that Trump prides himself on stopping and not starting wars. If Trump were to start a war in Afghanistan, he would come under immense pressure from his MAGA supporters who believe that US money should not be funding wars.

In such a context, Trump would insist that Pakistan play a role in helping the US get the airbase back. This would put the Pakistan leadership under a lot of duress as it is already in a tough battle with the BLA and TTP.

Going to battle with the Taliban would mean another confrontation and experts say that Pakistan does not have the bandwidth to do so.

Pakistan is also not in any position to negotiate with the Taliban, as it has accused the group of backing the TTP. This charge, however, has been denied by the Taliban.

Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan are at an all-time low, and in the midst of this, a confrontation with the Taliban is the last thing that Islamabad would want.

What makes things trickier for Pakistan is that refusing Trump is also not an option.

The Taliban leadership under its supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada is clear that the airbase would not be handed over.

During a meeting with top leaders, military and Intelligence officials, the decision to hand over Bagram was completely rejected.

The meeting also issued a stern warning to Pakistan and said that if the country decided to facilitate or support such a move, then it would be considered an enemy state.

The Taliban has also decided to reach out to global and regional powers over the issue. The plan is to reach out to India, China, Russia, Iran, the UAE and Saudi Arabia to raise this issue.

"In accordance with Islamic principles and grounded in its balanced, economy-oriented foreign policy, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan seeks constructive relations with all states based on mutual and shared interests," the Taliban had said earlier this week in a statement.

"It should be recalled that under the Doha Agreement, the United States pledged that it will not use or threaten force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Afghanistan, nor interfere in its internal affairs. Therefore, they must remain faithful to their commitments," the statement also read.

--IANS

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